Hopcroft, P, Ramstein, G, Pugh, T.A.M. et al. Polar amplification of Pliocene climate by elevated trace gas radiative forcing, National Academy of Sciences. Proceedings, 117 (38), 23401-23407, 2020

Pugh, T.A.M., Rademacher, T., Shafer, S. et al. Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover. Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, 2020.

Franke, J., Müller, C., Elliott, J., … Pugh, T.A.M. et al.. The GGCMI Phase II experiment: global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0). Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2315–2336, 2020

McDowell, N.G., Allen, C.D., Anderson-Teixeira, K., … Pugh, T.A.M. et al. Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world. Science 368, 2020

Papastefanou, P., Zang, C.S., Pugh, T.A.M. et al. A Dynamic Model for Strategies and Dynamics of Plant Water-Potential Regulation Under Drought Conditions. Front. Plant Sci. 11, 1–13, 2020.

Rabin, S.S., Alexander, P., Henry, R., … Pugh, T.A.M. et al. Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators. Earth Syst. Dyn. 11, 357–376, 2020.

Zohner, C.M., Mo, L., Pugh, T.A.M., Bastin, J.F., Crowther, T.W. Interactive climate factors restrict future increases in spring productivity of temperate and boreal trees. Glob. Chang. Biol. 26, 4042–4055, 2020

Minoli, S., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Ruane, A. C., Jägermeyr, J., Zabel, F., … Pugh, T.A.M. et al. Global response patterns of major rainfed crops to adaptation by maintaining current growing periods and irrigation. Earth’s Future, 7(12), 1464-1480, 2019.

Folberth, C., Elliott, J., Müller, C., Balkovič, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Izaurralde, R.C., … Pugh, T.A.M. et al. Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble. PLoS ONE 14 (9): e0221862, 2019.

Pugh, T.A.M., Arneth, A., Kautz, M., Poulter, B., Smith, B. Important role of forest disturbances in the global biomass turnover and carbon sinks. Nature Geoscience 12, 730-735, 2019.

Pugh, T.A.M., Lindeskog, M., Smith, B., Poulter, B., Arneth, A., Haverd, V., Calle, L. The role of forest regrowth in global carbon sink dynamics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 116(10), 4382-4387, 2019.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Kelly, D., … Pugh, T.A.M.et al. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset. Scientific Data 6, 50, 2019.

Schewe, J., Gosling, S.N., Reyer, C., … Pugh, T.A.M. et al. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes. Nat. Commun.10, 1005, 2019.

Matthews, T.J., Sadler, J.P., Kubota, Y., Woodall, C.W., Pugh, T.A.M. Systematic variation in North American tree species abundance distributions along macroecological climate gradients. Glob. Ecol. Biogeog., DOI: 10.1111/geb.12879, 2019.

Schelhaas, M.-J. Fridman, J., Hengeveld, G.M., Henttonen, H.M., Lehtonen, A., Kies, U., Krajnc, N., Lerink, B., Ni Dhubháin, Á., Polley, H., Pugh, T.A.M., Redmond, J.J., Rohner, B., Temperli, C., Vayreda, J., Nabuurs, G.-J. Actual European forest management by region, tree species and owner based on 714,000 re-measured trees in national forest inventories. PLoS ONE 13(11), e0207151, 2018.

Pugh, T.A.M., Jones, C.D., Huntingford, C. Burton, C., Arneth, A., Brovkin, V., Ciais, P., Lomas, M., Robertson, E., Piao, S.L., Sitch, S. A Large Committed Long-Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics. Earth’s Future 6, 1413-1432, 2018.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C., Ciais, P., Balkovic, J., Deryng, D., Folberth, C., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N., Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Reddy, A.D., Schmid, E., Wang, X. Global patterns of crop yield stability under additional nutrient and water inputs. PLoS ONE 13(6), e0198748, 2018.

Robinson, D.T., Di Vittorio, A., Alexander, P., Arneth, A., Barton, C.B., Brown, D.G., Kettner, A., Lemmen, C., O’Neill, B.C., Janssen, M., Pugh, T.A.M., Rabin, S.S., Rounsevell, M., Syvitski, J.P., Ullah, I., Verburg, P.H. Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system. Earth. Syst. Dynam. 9, 895.914, 2018.

Schurgers, G., Ahlström, A., Arneth, A., Pugh, T.A.M., Smith, B.: Climate sensitivity controls uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon sink.Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 4329-4336, 2018.

Krause, A., Pugh, T.A.M., Bayer, A.D., Li, W., Leung, F., Bondeau, A., Doelman, J.C., Humpenöder, F., Anthoni, P., Bodirsky, B.L., Ciais, P., Müller, C., Murry-Totarolo, G., Olin, S., Popp, A., Sitch, S., Stehfest, E., Arneth, A. Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate change mitigation efforts. Glob. Chang. Biol. 24, 3025.3038, 2018.

Kondo, M., Ichii, K., Patra, P.K., Poulter, B., Calle, L., Koven, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Kato, E., Harper, A., Zaehle, S., Wiltshire, A. Plant regrowth as a driver of recent enhancement of terrestrial CO2uptake. Geophs. Res. Lett. 24(10), 4820-4830, 2018.

Alexander, P., Rabin, S., Anthoni, P., Roslyn, H., Pugh, T.A.M., Rounsevell, M., Arneth, A.: Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to environmental change. Global Chang. Biol. 24, 2791-2809, 2018.

Kondo, M., Ichii, K., Patra, P.K., Canadell, J.G., Poulter, B., Sitch, S., Calle, L., Liu, Y.Y., van Dijk, A.I.J.M., Saeki, T., Saigusa, N., Friedlingstein, P., Arneth, A., Harper, A., Jain, A.K., Kato, E., Koven, C., Li, F., Pugh, T.A.M., Zaehle, S., Wiltshire, A., Chevallier, F., Maki, T., Nakamura, T., Niwa, Y., Rödenbeck, C. Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia. Nature Comm. 9, 1154, 2018.

Schleussner, C.F., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Saeed, F., Folberth, C., Liu, W., Wang, X., Pugh, T.A.M., Thiery, W., Seneviratne, S.I., Rogelj, J. Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 064007, 2018.

Wartenburger, R., Seneviratne, S.I., Hirschi, M., … Pugh, T. A.M. et al. Evapotranspiration in ISIMIP2a – Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets. Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (7), 075001, 2018.

Parazoo, N.C., Arneth, A., Pugh, T.A.M., Smith, B., Steiner, N., Luus, K., Commane, R., Benmergui, J., Stofferahn, E., Liu, J., Rödenbeck, C., Kawa, R., Euskirchen, E., Zona, D., Arndt, K., Oechel, W., Miller, C. Spring photosynthetic onset and net CO2uptake in Alaska triggered by landscape thawing. Glob. Chang. Biol. 24(8), 3416-3435, 2018.

Krause, A., Pugh, T.A.M., Bayer, A. D., Doelman, J.C., Humpenöder, F., Anthoni, P., Olin, S., Bodirsky, B.L., Popp, A., Stehfest, E., Arneth, A.: Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators. Biogeosci. 14, 4829-4850, 2017.

Arneth, A., Sitch, S., … Pugh, T.A.M. et al.: Historical carbon dioxide emissions due to land use changes possibly larger than assumed. Nature Geoscience 10, 79-84, 2017.

Schauberger, B., Archontoulis, S., … Pugh, T.A.M. et al.: Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models. Nat. Commun. 8, 13931, 2017.

Bayer, A.D., Lindeskog, M.L., Pugh, T.A.M., Anthoni, P., Fuchs, R., Arneth, A.: Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions. Earth System Dynamics 8, 91-111, 2017.

Li, W., Ciais, P., Peng, S., … Pugh, T.A.M. et al: Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations. Biogeosciences 14(22), 5053, 2017.

Szogs, S., Arneth, A., Anthoni, P., Doelman, J.C., Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Pugh, T.A.M., Stehfest, E.: Impact of LULCC on the emission of BVOCs during the 21st century. Atmos. Environ.165, 73-87, 2017.

Prestele, R., Arneth, A., … Pugh, T.A.M. et al.: Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments. Earth Syst. Dyn. 8, 369-386, 2017.

Frieler, K., Schauberger, B., … Pugh, T. A. M. et al. Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability, Earth’s Future 5, 605-616

Müller, C. , Elliott, J., … Pugh, T.A.M. et al.: Global gridded crop model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications. Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 1403-1422, 2017.

Hantson, S., Knorr, W., Schurgers, G., Pugh, T.A.M., Arneth, A. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use. Atmos. Environ. 155, 35-45, 2017.

Porwollik, V., Müller, C., Elliot, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Iizumi, T., Ray, D.K., Ruance, A.C., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N., Lawrence, P.J., Liu, W., Pugh, T.A.M., Reddy, A., Sakurai, G., Schmid, E., Wang, X., de Wit, A., Wu, X.: Spatial and temporal uncertainty of crop yield aggregations. Eur. J. Agron. in press. doi:10.1016/j.eja.2016.08.006, 2016.

Pugh, T.A.M., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Folberth, C., Olin, S., Schmid, E., Arneth, A.: Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change. Nat. Commun. 7, 12608. doi:10.1038/ncomms12608, 2016.

Pugh, T.A.M., Müller, C., Arneth, A., Haverd, V., Smith, B.: Key knowledge and data gaps in modelling the influence of CO2 concentration on the terrestrial carbon sink. J. Plant Physiol. 203, 3–15. doi:10.1016/j.jplph.2016.05.001, 2016.

Zhu, Z., Piao, S., Myneni, R.B., Huang, M., Zeng, Z., Canadell, J.G., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Arneth, A., Liu, R., Mao, J., Pan, Y., Peng, S., Peñuelas, J., Poulter, B., Pugh, T.A.M., Stocker, B.D., Viovy, N., Wang, X., Wang, Y., Xiao, Z., Yang, H., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N.: Greening of the Earth and its drivers. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 791–795. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3004, 2016.

Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Boote, K.J., Conway, D., Ruane, A.C., Gerten, D., Jones, J.W., Khabarov, N., Olin, S., Schapho, S., Schmid, E., Yang, H.: Regional disparities in the beneficial e ects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 786–790. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2995, 2016.

Bodin, P., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Arneth, A.: Accounting for interannual variability in agricultural intensi fi cation : The potential of crop selection in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agric. Syst. 148, 159–168. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2016.07.012, 2016.

Krause, A., Pugh, T.A.M., Bayer, A.D., Lindeskog, M., Arneth, A.: Impacts of land-use history on the recovery of ecosystems after agricultural abandonment. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 745–766. doi:10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, 2016.

Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D.B., Martre, P., Ruane, A.C., Wallach, D., Jones, J.W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P.K., Alderman, P.D., Anothai, J.A., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Tereres, E., Folberth, C., Garica-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L.A., Izaurralde, R.C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C.D., Kersebaum, K.C., Kimball, B.A., Koehler, A.-K., Kumar, S.N., Nendel, C., O’Leary, G., Olesen, J.E., Ottman, M.J., Palosuo, T., Vara Prasad, P. V, Priesack, E., Pugh, T.A.M., Peynolds, M., Rezaei, E.E., Rötter, R.P., Schmid, E., Semenov, M.A., Shcherbak, I., Stehfest, E., Stöckle, C.O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wall, G.W., Wang, E., White, J.W., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z., Zhu, Y.: Similar estimate of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nat. Clim. Chang. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3115, 2016.

Pugh, T. A. M., Arneth, A., Olin, S., Ahlström, A., Bayer, A. D., Klein Goldewijk, K., Lindeskog, M., Schurgers, G.: Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management, Environmental Research Letters, 10(12), 124008, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124008, 2015.
See also http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n2/full/nclimate2928.html

Olin, S., Lindeskog, M., Pugh, T. A. M., Schurgers, G., Wårlind, D., Mishurov, M., Zaehle, S., Stocker, B. D., Smith, B., Arneth, A.: Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745-768, doi:10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015.